My plans to retrace Captain Cook's unfinished voyage have been postponed a year while I work on the next Marine Diesel Basics book and get my new boat SV Oceandrifter ready for sea.
In Case You Missed It: This report came my way this morning and I think it’s worth reposting. It’s not the first time I’ve read that Israeli Intelligence doesn’t believe Iran is pursuing a nuclear bomb. But, in view of all the war preparations and the sanctions against Iran, it’s important to keep in mind that the arguments against Iran are built on sand.
The real issue, of course, is OIL. Iran is the world’s third largest oil exporter and the only one in the Middle East not surrounded by US military bases.
IMHO (in my humble opinion) What the sanctions against Iran will really achieve:
1) suffering for the Iranian people
2) confirmation that the US dollar is finished as the world reserve currency. More and more countries are trading oil and other commodities in other currencies or gold or trade goods.If the US dollar is not used for the oil trade it would collapse. Guess which two oil exporters stopped using US dollars? You guessed – Iraq under our friend Saddam Hussein and Libya under our other friend Gaddafi (check out the connections between him and Western Intelligence – if that’s not an oxymoron).
3) hike in oil price and possibly severe disruption to oil supplies (ie the next step down of the Great Recession). There is almost NO spare oil production capacity. With conventional oil production now in its 5th year of decline (IEA said in 2010 conventional oil production peaked in 2006), we are dependent on unconventional oil to rapidly expanding production to cover the declining conventional oil production. Saudi Arabia claims to be able to sustain 12 m barrel per day but has NEVER gone over 10 million and many doubt their claims.
Anyway, here’s the piece on Israel Intelligence:
Israel Intelligence Agrees Iran Is Not After N-bomb: Report
By Press TV
March 19, 2012 “Press TV” – – Despite their saber-rattling, Israeli officials have generally accepted the US intelligence assessment that Tehran is not building a nuclear bomb, a report says.
The Associated Press report said Sunday that although Israeli leaders have been charging for years that Iran is trying to build nuclear weapons, their officials have accepted the more nuanced American view.
The US Intelligence Community has said in frequent reports, the latest of which was published in February, that there is no hard evidence showing Iran has decided to build a nuclear bomb.
The report added that several senior Israeli officials, who spoke to AP in recent days clearly, said Israel has come around to the US view that no final decision to build a bomb has been made by Iran.
The officials, who are privy to Israeli intelligence, added that this is the prevailing view in the Israeli intelligence community.
On March 18, The New York Times published a report quoting a former top US intelligence official as saying that both Washington and Tel Aviv have reached a consensus over the peaceful nature of Tehran’s nuclear energy program.
“There is not a lot of dispute between the US and Israeli intelligence communities on the fact” that Iran has not deviated from its nuclear energy program.
The Los Angeles Times reported on February 23rd that 16 US intelligence agencies agree Tehran was not seeking to build nuclear weapons.
The “highly classified” intelligence assessment was reportedly circulated among US policymakers early last year.
The US and Israel have been escalating their war rhetoric against Iran in recent months, claiming that there are diversions in the country’s nuclear energy program towards a military one.
Tehran refutes such claims, saying that as a member of International Atomic Energy Agency and signatory to Non-Proliferation Treaty, it has every right to the peaceful uses of nuclear energy.